The TPM Conference is the one week each year when the trans-Pacific freight market puts its cards on the table. Carriers, beneficial cargo owners, freight forwarders, port executives, customs brokers, and analysts converge in Long Beach to set contract rates, debate alliance strategy, argue about surcharges, and signal what the rest of 2026 will look like for ocean freight.
TPM 2026 ran in early March against the most stable backdrop in three years. The 2025 alliance reshuffle has settled, Red Sea routing premiums have normalized, and contract season closed with rates that finally look defensible on both sides of the table. But the cautious mood on H2 demand, the US trade policy uncertainty hanging over every panel, and the carrier push on digitalization made it clear the industry is not yet calling 2026 stable.
This recap pulls the practical takeaways forwarders need from TPM 2026: where trans-Pacific contract rates settled, what the alliance reshuffle is now delivering in schedule reliability, what carriers and BCOs said about H2 demand, where the digitalization push is going, and what to plan for between now and TPM 2027.
The TPM Conference, formally Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference, is the largest annual industry event for the container shipping market in the Americas. It runs every late February or early March at the Long Beach Convention Center in California, drawing roughly 2,500 to 3,500 attendees from across the freight market.
The event is produced by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the data and analysis firm that absorbed IHS Markit in 2022 and inherited the JOC (Journal of Commerce) editorial team. The JOC team continues to anchor TPM, which is why the conference still functions as the editorial and pricing benchmark conversation for trans-Pacific ocean freight.
Beneficial cargo owners (BCOs): The largest US importers, including major retailers, automotive groups, and consumer brands, attend to negotiate annual contracts directly with carrier sales leadership.
Ocean carriers: CEO and sales leadership from Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, COSCO, ONE, Evergreen, HMM, Yang Ming, ZIM, and others use TPM to publicly signal pricing posture for the year ahead.
Freight forwarders and NVOCCs: Mid and large NVOCC and freight forwarder leadership attend to negotiate forwarder agreements with carriers and to network with shipper customers.
Port and terminal executives: Major North American port and marine terminal operators present infrastructure investment plans and discuss labor conditions, productivity, and chassis availability.
Customs brokers, drayage carriers, rail intermodal operators: The full inland chain that handles cargo after it leaves the marine terminal.
Analysts and journalists: Drewry, Sea-Intelligence, Linerlytica, Xeneta, FreightWaves, JOC editorial, and the major trade publications all cover TPM as the year's primary news flow event.
The TPM week sits at the inflection point of the trans-Pacific annual contract season. Service contracts on this trade lane historically run from May 1 to April 30 the following year, and the bulk of negotiation happens in February and March. By the time TPM convenes, BCOs have term sheets in hand, carriers have published pricing posture, and the panel discussions, hallway conversations, and one on one meetings shape the contracts that will govern the next 12 months of trans-Pacific volume.
For forwarders who are not in the BCO contract conversation directly, TPM is the public signal for what carrier pricing posture, capacity discipline, and surcharge philosophy will look like for the rest of the year. The panels and press briefings are watched as carefully as the contracts themselves.
TPM 2026 had a noticeably different tone from TPM 2024 and TPM 2025. The previous two years were dominated by crisis themes: Red Sea diversions and Suez Canal disruption in 2024, the alliance reshuffle and the first wave of US tariff uncertainty in 2025. TPM 2026 was the first event in several years where the dominant question was not what is breaking but what is settling.
The headline news out of TPM 2026 was the trans-Pacific contract rate level. After 18 months of volatile spot rates and contentious 2025 to 2026 negotiations, the 2026 to 2027 contract season closed with rates that landed in a clear, defensible range and held there. The overwhelming focus of the negotiations was the inbound Asia to US lanes, because that flow represents the largest single freight movement covered by TPM. The 2026 to 2027 trans-Pacific contract rate landscape, based on carrier and BCO commentary at the event, is summarized below.
| Lane | 2026 to 2027 Contract Range | vs 2025 to 2026 Direction | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia to US West Coast (USWC) | 1,200 to 1,500 dollars per FEU | Down materially from 2024 peaks, stable to slightly down from 2025 contracts | USD per FEU |
| Asia to US East Coast (USEC) | 1,500 to 1,800 dollars per FEU | Down from peak, stable in tight band | USD per FEU |
| Asia to USEC via Suez (where applicable) | 1,800 to 2,100 dollars per FEU | Red Sea premium has narrowed but not closed | USD per FEU |
| Asia to US Gulf | 1,700 to 2,000 dollars per FEU | Stable, modest discount to USEC | USD per FEU |
The narrowness of the bands matters as much as the absolute numbers. After two years of contracts where the spread between best and worst negotiated rate could exceed 1,000 dollars per FEU on the same lane, the 2026 to 2027 contracts compressed into a much tighter range. Both carriers and BCOs at TPM acknowledged this signals a more disciplined market, with carriers less willing to undercut to win marginal volume and BCOs less able to pit carriers against each other for outlier discounts.
For US import forwarders, this compression matters because inbound Asia to US freight is where the concentration risk sits. Running the trans-Pacific inbound book inside Ocean Import Freight Management Software keeps arrival notice, customs clearance milestones, ISF filing, and destination charges tied to the specific contract rate on each booking, so a rate that drifts outside the negotiated band is caught at booking rather than at invoice reconciliation two months later.
The practical implication for quoting staff is that the all in spread between carrier offers narrowed too. Loading these 2026 to 2027 contract rates into Rate Management Quoting Software for Forwarders at the start of the May 1 contract year, with surcharge logic layered in, gives quoting staff a defensible reference point against any spot offer that drifts more than 10 to 15 percent from the contracted rate.
The February 2025 reshuffle that replaced 2M, THE Alliance, and the old Ocean Alliance structure with Gemini Cooperation, Premier Alliance, and a restructured Ocean Alliance was the dominant story at TPM 2025. At TPM 2026, the conversation moved from speculation to performance scorecards.
Gemini Cooperation (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) was the loudest case study. The Maersk pitch heading into 2025 was that the Gemini hub and spoke model, which routes mainline vessels through a small set of major transshipment hubs and feeds destination ports with shuttle services, would deliver 90 percent on time performance. At TPM 2026, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd presented performance data showing they had hit the high 80s consistently through Q4 2025 and into Q1 2026, with several months posting low 90s. Independent analysts (Sea-Intelligence in particular) confirmed Gemini schedule reliability was meaningfully ahead of competing alliances.
Premier Alliance (ONE, HMM, Yang Ming) and Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, OOCL) both reported improvement from the disruption of the early 2025 transition, with on time performance climbing into the 70s and 80s through late 2025. Neither alliance is matching Gemini's reliability claim, but the gap is narrower than it was at TPM 2025.
MSC standalone continues to run its own loops outside any alliance. MSC scale (the largest container line in the world by capacity) lets it sustain weekly frequency without partners. MSC presented at TPM as the flexible alternative to alliance routing, emphasizing port pair coverage rather than schedule reliability.
The forwarder implication coming out of TPM 2026 was clear. The schedule reliability difference between alliances is now large enough that it should factor into routing decisions, not just price comparisons. Splitting volume across alliances based on the reliability profile of each customer's freight is a more nuanced decision than it was a year ago. Forwarders who manage the head haul and back haul book together inside Ocean Freight Management Software can layer alliance selection into the sailing choice at booking, so the reliability call is visible on the shipment file alongside the contracted rate.
The Red Sea diversion premium that dominated 2024 and most of 2025 has narrowed sharply by TPM 2026. Most carriers are still routing Asia to Europe and Asia to USEC services around the Cape of Good Hope rather than transiting Suez, but the rate premium for that routing has compressed as the industry has absorbed the extra distance and time as the new normal.
Several carrier panels at TPM 2026 indicated they are unlikely to resume Suez transit for Asia to USEC services until security conditions improve materially and stay improved for an extended period. The Cape routing has effectively become the planning assumption for 2026 to 2027 services, with the rate compression reflecting that capacity has reorganized around longer transit times.
For forwarders, this means the Red Sea premium line item that appeared in 2024 quotes can be quietly retired from rate sheet logic for most lanes. Transit times have stabilized at the post diversion baseline, and the surcharge volatility that came with each round of attacks in 2024 has not returned.
The one theme that injected real anxiety into TPM 2026 was US trade policy. Between the IEEPA tariff regime, Section 301 expansions, ongoing trade negotiations with Mexico and Canada, and the threat of additional tariff actions, every demand forecasting panel ended with a caveat about how a single executive order could reset the demand picture inside of weeks.
The specific worry was the 2025 front loading dynamic. Through late 2024 and into 2025, importers pulled forward inventory orders to land cargo before threatened tariff increases took effect. That front loading boosted trans-Pacific volume in 2025 but borrowed demand from 2026. The H2 2026 question is whether organic demand can absorb the unwinding of front loaded inventory, or whether carriers will face soft volume just as fresh capacity arrives.
Several BCO panels at TPM noted they were holding back from committing to firm 2026 volume forecasts past Q2, citing the impossibility of planning capacity around tariff scenarios that change every six to eight weeks. Carriers in turn signaled they were planning for a range of demand outcomes rather than a single forecast, with blank sailing and slow steaming as the primary levers if H2 volume disappoints.
Digitalization has been a TPM theme for at least a decade, usually with more slides than actual deployment. TPM 2026 was different. Three specific digital initiatives moved past the proof of concept phase into operational reality.
e-AWB adoption past 90 percent for air. Electronic air waybill penetration on major air cargo lanes is now firmly above 90 percent of eligible shipments, with several major air freight forwarders reporting full 100 percent e-AWB compliance on their direct controlled traffic. The TPM air cargo panels treated paper AWB as essentially deprecated.
ONE Record activation. IATA ONE Record, the data sharing standard for air cargo that replaces piecemeal message formats with a single data model, moved into live operation at major carriers and forwarders in late 2025 and is being treated at TPM 2026 as the baseline data exchange protocol going forward. Carriers and forwarders presented joint implementation roadmaps rather than competing initiatives.
AI rate parsing. AI tools that read carrier rate sheet PDFs and emails and convert them into structured rate data are now the baseline forwarder operations tool, not an emerging capability. Multiple forwarder panels at TPM described automated rate parsing as a prerequisite for keeping up with the volume of mid year rate changes carriers are pushing.
The combined message from TPM 2026 carrier and analyst panels on H2 2026 was cautious. The variables stacking up against a strong H2 are clear: fresh vessel capacity arriving, front loaded inventory unwinding, tariff uncertainty depressing capital investment in import volume, and a contract season that closed at lower rates than carriers wanted.
The variables that could surprise to the upside are narrower: a clean tariff resolution that releases held back demand, a peak shopping season that pulls inventory faster than expected, or fresh disruption (Red Sea re escalation, Panama Canal restrictions, major port labor action) that effectively reduces capacity.
Most carriers signaled they will defend rates with blank sailing if H2 demand disappoints, and several large carrier CEOs explicitly told TPM audiences they would rather idle capacity than chase volume into uneconomic pricing. Whether that discipline holds across the alliance landscape will be the rate story of late summer and fall.
The forwarder playbook coming out of TPM 2026 is straightforward but requires discipline.
For forwarders looking at where to put analytics investment based on TPM 2026 signals, lane level margin analysis is the highest leverage starting point. Freight Analytics Software for Forwarders shows where actual booked margin diverges from quoted margin by carrier, lane, and customer, which is exactly the signal forwarders need to react quickly to mid year surcharge announcements and shifting carrier reliability.
Putting TPM 2026 in historical context is the easiest way to read what the event actually signaled. Each of the last several TPMs had a dominant theme that defined the year that followed.
| Event | Year | Dominant Theme | Year That Followed |
|---|---|---|---|
| TPM 2023 | March 2023 | Pandemic rate cliff and post Covid demand normalization | Spot rates collapsed through Q2 and Q3 2023, soft demand persisted |
| TPM 2024 | March 2024 | Red Sea diversions and Suez Canal disruption | Rate spikes through Q2 2024, transit times stretched, capacity tightened |
| TPM 2025 | March 2025 | Alliance reshuffle (Gemini, Premier, restructured Ocean Alliance) and IEEPA tariff debut | Front loading boosted volume, schedule reliability volatile during transition |
| TPM 2026 | March 2026 | Settled contract rates, alliance reliability deliverables, H2 demand caution, digitalization at scale | H2 outlook cautious, carrier discipline tested by softer demand and incoming capacity |
The pattern across recent years is that the TPM headline theme is a reliable directional indicator for the following 12 months. Forwarders who took TPM 2024 Red Sea warnings seriously locked in early capacity. Forwarders who took TPM 2025 alliance reshuffle seriously prepared for transition disruption. The TPM 2026 signal is more nuanced: not a single crisis to plan around, but a quieter call to build operational and pricing discipline because soft demand will reward operators who have it and punish those who do not.
Beyond the headline themes, several second tier topics consumed panel time at TPM 2026 and matter for specific segments of the forwarder market.
Sustainability and EU ETS compliance. The European Union Emissions Trading System now applies to maritime shipping, and carriers are passing the cost through as a separate surcharge on Asia to Europe and intra Europe lanes. TPM panels covered the practical billing implications and the BCO appetite for paying for verified lower carbon routing options.
US port infrastructure investment. Major North American port authorities (Long Beach, Los Angeles, Savannah, New York and New Jersey, Houston, Seattle, Tacoma) presented infrastructure roadmaps and capacity expansion plans. Chassis availability and rail interchange productivity were standing topics.
Labor stability. The ILA (East and Gulf Coast) and ILWU (West Coast) contract horizons were discussed, with most panels concluding that 2026 will be a relatively stable labor year compared to 2024. Forwarder panels still flagged the need for contingency planning given the lead time required to reroute volume.
Mexico nearshoring durability. Mexico cross border freight growth continued through 2025, and TPM panels examined whether the trend is durable or whether tariff policy will erode the Mexico advantage. Panel sentiment was mixed.
Air cargo capacity and rates. Air cargo had its own track at TPM, with rates softening from 2024 peaks but capacity tight enough on key lanes to keep premium services elevated. The e-AWB and ONE Record themes anchored the digitalization conversation for the air cargo side specifically.
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The TPM Conference, formally Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference, is the largest annual industry event for container shipping in the Americas. It runs every late February or early March at the Long Beach Convention Center in California and draws roughly 2,500 to 3,500 attendees from carriers, beneficial cargo owners, freight forwarders, NVOCCs, port and terminal operators, customs brokers, and analysts. It is produced by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the firm that absorbed the JOC editorial team.
TPM 2026 was held in early March 2026 at the Long Beach Convention Center in California, following the standard late February or early March timing the conference has used for over two decades. The event spans roughly four days of panels, keynotes, breakout sessions, and networking, with the bulk of formal panel content concentrated in the middle two days.
Trans-Pacific contract rates for the 2026 to 2027 service year settled at roughly 1,200 to 1,500 dollars per FEU to the US West Coast and 1,500 to 1,800 dollars per FEU to the US East Coast, based on carrier and BCO commentary at TPM 2026. Rates routed via Suez to the US East Coast carried a modest premium of 1,800 to 2,100 dollars per FEU where applicable. The negotiated bands compressed materially compared to 2024 to 2025 contracts, signaling a more disciplined market on both sides of the table.
TPM 2026 was the first event to evaluate the alliance reshuffle one year after it took effect. Gemini Cooperation (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) reported on time performance in the high 80s to low 90s, with independent analyst confirmation that it leads the industry on schedule reliability. Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance reported improvement from the early 2025 transition disruption, with on time performance climbing into the 70s and 80s. MSC continues to run standalone and emphasized port pair flexibility rather than reliability claims.
The Red Sea premium has narrowed sharply by TPM 2026. Carriers are still routing most Asia to Europe and Asia to USEC services around the Cape of Good Hope rather than transiting Suez, but the rate premium for that routing has compressed as the industry has absorbed the extra distance and time as the new operating baseline. For most lanes, the explicit Red Sea surcharge line item can be retired from rate sheets, with the underlying ocean rate already reflecting Cape routing as the planning assumption.
The H2 2026 outlook from TPM 2026 panels was cautious. Carriers and analysts flagged risks of soft demand from front loaded inventory unwinding, fresh vessel capacity arriving on trans-Pacific lanes, and US tariff uncertainty depressing import volume planning. Most carriers signaled they will defend rates with blank sailings if H2 demand disappoints rather than chasing volume into uneconomic pricing. Whether that discipline holds across the alliance landscape will be the rate story of late summer and fall.
Three digital initiatives stood out at TPM 2026. First, e-AWB adoption for air cargo passed 90 percent of eligible shipments, with paper AWB now treated as effectively deprecated. Second, IATA ONE Record moved into live operation at major carriers and forwarders, establishing it as the baseline data exchange protocol for air cargo going forward. Third, AI driven rate sheet parsing is now the baseline forwarder operations tool rather than an emerging capability, with multiple forwarder panels describing it as a prerequisite for handling the volume of mid year rate changes.
The TPM Conference is produced by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the data and analysis firm that absorbed IHS Markit in 2022. The conference inherited and continues to operate with the JOC (Journal of Commerce) editorial team, which is why TPM still functions as the editorial benchmark conversation for trans-Pacific ocean freight. JOC reporters anchor most of the main stage panels and produce daily coverage during the event week.
TPM is the largest container shipping conference in the Americas and is the most influential single event for trans-Pacific contract pricing. Comparable global events include Intermodal Europe (rail and intermodal focused, held annually in Europe), Containerization International conferences, and FIATA World Congress (focused on the global freight forwarder community). TPM is unique in that its timing sits directly on top of the trans-Pacific contract negotiation window, which gives it disproportionate influence on the year that follows.
For mid and large freight forwarders with material trans-Pacific volume, TPM attendance pays back through carrier relationship building, BCO customer networking, and direct visibility into the panel debates that shape the rest of the year. For smaller forwarders, the daily JOC coverage and post event analyst write ups deliver most of the informational value without the travel cost. Either way, treating TPM as the primary annual signal event for trans-Pacific operations is the right framing.